Is the general population walking into a massive famine without realizing it?
It looks that way because while the focus has been on energy prices and tanker routes, the real pressure is building around something less visible and far more consequential.
Fertilizer shortages.
The Strait of Hormuz is critical to fertilizer and the gas used to produce it. When that flow is disrupted, as it has been, it breaks the system.
And here’s the part that isn’t being talked about: timing.
Right now, shelves are stocked with last year’s harvest. The concern is the next cycle, which will hit the poorest countries the hardest, and starvation becomes a real possibility.
Farming is built on a just-in-time model. So if fertilizer doesn’t arrive during key planting windows, it doesn’t just show up later and fix the problem. The opportunity is gone. Less fertilizer today means lower, or even non-existent, yields later.
As it stands, farmers are already cutting back on fertilizer use because they can’t afford it, and others are dealing with drought conditions so severe that planting at all is becoming a gamble.
Shortages could become even more severe if additional key waterways come under pressure, such as the Strait of Malacca, as well as the Danish Straits.
Are we seeing the early stages of this?
It seems likely. The U.S. has negotiated overflight access across Indonesia near the Strait of Malacca, while also expanding its presence in Northern Europe with over 40 basing agreements.
And it all comes back to the same pressure point: the food supply.
Because when you layer the Iran war onto an already fragile farming system, the question becomes: how bad will food shortages actually get? The answer comes down to two things: when the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and how far certain oligarch groups want to take this.
