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Gaslighting the Gas Market

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President Trump is demanding that gas companies lower prices immediately. The problem is that gas prices aren’t set by presidential decree. They are driven primarily by global crude oil prices, refining capacity, inventories, taxes, and competition.

This is reminiscent of President Biden blaming grocery stores and retailers for inflation. When prices are politically inconvenient, the temptation is always to blame the companies at the end of the supply chain.

Oil prices have fallen sharply over the past week, nearly erasing the “war premium” that followed the U.S.-Iran conflict. But that drop appears to be driven more by market sentiment than by a meaningful improvement in supply. Commodity strategists warned Monday that traders may be pricing in an overly optimistic outlook while underestimating the remaining supply risks.

During the conflict, the United States authorized the release of 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help stabilize markets. Even after the ceasefire, the SPR remains at its lowest level since 1983, and combined U.S. strategic and commercial inventories have fallen substantially. In other words, the market has largely priced out the geopolitical risk, but much of the emergency oil that helped calm prices has already been consumed.

World leaders are not so sure the crisis is over. President Trump claims that Iran has requested a meeting on Tuesday but Iranian leaders say that they do not intend to meet with any U.S. officials.

“We will not have any negotiation meetings at any level with the American side in the coming days, and the fact that the U.S. representatives are traveling to Qatar has nothing to do with the visit of the Iranian delegation,” Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said.

Okay then. Can U.S. negotiators just show up and hope to catch the Iranians for an elevator pitch? Can President Trump end this energy crisis because he’s bored of it and demand that it is over by Tweet?

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Supreme Court Backs Bayer

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Clayton Morris

The Military Build-Up

Ford and General Motors are in discussions with defense contractors about converting some of their factories to produce military weapons. Interesting timing, considering we’re supposedly winding down the latest war. Speaking to reporters this week, President Trump said that companies, including General Motors and Ford, are discussing plans to manufacture weapons such as Patriot air-defense missiles and Tomahawk cruise missiles as part of a major expansion of U.S. military production. “I know General Motors is all excited about building weapons now,” Trump said, adding that some civilian factories could be converted for military use as part of what he described as a “big strong economic push.” The proposal comes after reports that the Pentagon has been meeting with major manufacturers about shifting idle production lines toward weapons production, reviving a World War II-style strategy of turning America’s industrial base into a wartime machine. Why the sudden urgency? Years of wasting

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Clayton Morris

Israel Called the Shots

“When I came to President Trump, I told him, ‘We are going into Iran. I did not ask permission. I simply informed him.’” Those were Netanyahu’s words during a speech on Wednesday at the Muni Expo conference for local officials in Tel Aviv. Netanyahu also said he was told, “This is impossible,” and “not to do this.” But Israel, knowing Washington has historically backed them no matter what, and that any escalation in Iran would put American forces in harm’s way, knew full well this would drag the U.S. into the war. The U.S. is no victim, though, or innocent bystander; it decided to fund Israel’s military campaign, genocide and all. In extended remarks, Netanyahu discussed his military achievements, saying Israel went “out into the arena, to initiate, to attack,” adding that “the most important thing we did” in the recent conflicts “was break the barrier of fear.” So Israel

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Clayton Morris

UN Details Widespread Death and Maiming of Palestinian Children in Gaza

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Clayton Morris

Senate Discovers War Powers

The Senate finally found its backbone on Tuesday, voting to limit President Trump’s ability to wage war against Iran without congressional authorization. How brave. Not before the bombs fell. Not before the world held its breath waiting to see whether the conflict would spiral into a regional war. Not before lawmakers spent weeks cheerleading military action and wrapping themselves in the flag. Only after the administration signed a memorandum of understanding and signaled that a diplomatic framework was taking shape did enough senators decide it was safe to take a stand. The measure passed 50-48, with four Republicans joining Democrats to support the resolution. Further, it is a toothless, non-binding concurrent resolution that lacks legal force and does not require presidential action to remove U.S. forces from Iran. The vote is being hailed as Congress reasserting its constitutional war powers. Critics might call it something else: a

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Clayton Morris

War Outcome Reality Check

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