The U.S.-Iran peace deal that Trump announced now appears to be a genuine development and not just another social media stunt.
But will Israel allow the deal to move forward?
That’s far from certain. In fact, the signs point in the opposite direction. On Tuesday, Israel bombed a civilian area in Lebanon and then launched a second strike after emergency medical crews arrived.
At this point, Trump seems to be at the end of his rope with Israel’s antics, publicly venting his frustrations with them:
“Israel is fighting Hezbollah too long, and too many people are getting killed, and you don’t have to knock down an apartment house every time you’re looking for somebody, because there are a lot of people in those apartment houses, and they’re not all Hezbollah.”
“I didn’t like where two hours before we were signing the agreement that there was an attack in Lebanon, in Beirut.”
So why is Trump only now saying publicly what many people have been saying for months about Netanyahu’s relentless bombing campaign? And is he actually concerned about those people who were in the apartment houses?
The real reason he’s speaking out may have more to do with the fact that America’s strategic petroleum reserves are scraping the bottom.
If oil doesn’t start flowing freely through the Strait again soon, no amount of Truth Social posts, victory declarations, or promises of imminent peace will be enough to keep the markets calm or stop prices from climbing across the board.
So now what?
If past behavior is any indication, Israel will most likely sabotage the deal, and that may be why Trump has publicly suggested that “Israel let Syria take care of Hezbollah.” Experts say that would be a mistake, though, and that the last thing we need is another proxy war as a band-aid solution.
How will the president make this agreement stick? That seems like a tall order when the leaked text of the deal, of course, DOES require a permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon.
Trump could just take a different approach and walk away. That’s an idea.
The president doesn’t need a memorandum, a written agreement, or a formal signing ceremony. He can declare that he’s pulling the U.S. out of the war and halt aid flowing to Israel. This would put America first, which is what he campaigned on.
Is there a chance of that happening?
Maybe. But history suggests otherwise. Washington has spent decades shielding Israel from meaningful consequences, and few American leaders have shown any willingness to challenge that arrangement. If that pattern holds, don’t expect a dramatic change in course anytime soon.
